There’s a neat web series on NFL.com called The N “if” L. It’s produced by NFL.com analyst Dave Demeshek and offers different scenarios based on a particular event in league history being altered. There’s a great one called “What if ‘The Drive’ had Stalled?”
My favorite though is from 2012 called “What if the USFL Hadn’t Folded?” It’s interesting and pretty funny, but as an aficionado of defunct leagues, it got me thinking. I decided to really take a hard look at the premise, and here’s what I came up with.
In Demeshek’s universe, the USFL survives and moves to the fall. He points out accurately that the USFL had a lot of big stars, but he incorrectly states the league had a lot of cash. Some teams did, most did not, though they weren’t swimming in red ink like some of the teams that wound up folding, or almost all of the teams from the World Football League of the mid-70s.
Demeshek’s surviving USFL:
East West
Baltimore Stars Arizona Wranglers*
Birmingham Stallions Memphis Showboats
Jacksonville Bulls Oakland Invaders
New Jersey Generals Portland Breakers
Orlando Renegades San Antonio Gunslingers
*I added Arizona, because Demeshek only pulls nine names out his USFL pog box in the video.
The problem with this line up is San Antonio and Portland were both broke. Oakland, even with the addition of a bunch of talented players from the Michigan Panthers saw attendance plummet. For the record, the original fall configuration for the USFL was to be as follows:
USFL 1986 (proposed)
Liberty Division Independence Division
Baltimore Stars Arizona Outlaws
Birmingham Stallions Jacksonville Bulls
Memphis Showboats Orlando Renegades
New Jersey Generals Tampa Bay Bandits
Many of the teams that played in the spring of 1985 either folded or merged instead of moving to fall. As early as 1984, when the move to fall was announced, teams were moving, folding or merging. This was the USFL in 1984 before the decision was made to move to fall.
USFL 1984:
Atlantic Division Southern Division
New Jersey Generals Birmingham Stallions
Philadelphia Stars Jacksonville Bulls
Pittsburgh Maulers Memphis Showboats
Washington Federals New Orleans Breakers
Tampa Bay Bandits
Central Division Pacific Division
Chicago Blitz Arizona Wranglers
Houston Gamblers Denver Gold
Michigan Panthers Los Angeles Express
Oklahoma Outlaws Oakland Invaders
San Antonio Gunslingers
Under my thesis, the USFL survives because it does not move to fall, despite Donald Trump’s insistence. Demeshek, by the way, alludes to the widely accepted belief that Trump killed the USFL, and he is spot on there. This is also supported by the excellent ESPN 30 for 30 documentary Small Potatoes: Who Killed the USFL?
So here is what the USFL probably would have looked like in the spring of 1985, had the league not announced a move to fall play for the 1986 season.
1985 (Spring without fall move)
Atlantic Division Southern Division
New Jersey Generals Birmingham Stallions
Philadelphia Stars Jacksonville Bulls
Pittsburgh Maulers New Orleans Breakers
Orlando Renegades Tampa Bay Bandits
Central Division Pacific Division
Memphis Showboats Arizona Outlaws
Houston Gamblers Denver Gold
Michigan Panthers Los Angeles Express
San Antonio Gunslingers Oakland Invaders
FOLDED/MERGED: Oklahoma Outlaws, Chicago Blitz
The Outlaws still merge with the Arizona Wranglers, and the Chicago Blitz, who were near the bottom of the league in attendance and TV ratings are folded. Washington still moves to Orlando to become the Renegades. The Breakers don’t have to move to Portland, and can stay in New Orleans where fan support is strong. Same with Philadelphia. The league continues on into the spring of 1986 though a few more unhealthy teams succumb.
USFL 1986 (Spring no move to fall)
Eastern Division
New Jersey Generals
Philadelphia Stars
Pittsburgh Maulers
Orlando Renegades
Michigan Panthers
Southern Division
Birmingham Stallions
Jacksonville Bulls
New Orleans Breakers
Tampa Bay Bandits
Western Division
Arizona Outlaws
Denver Gold
Houston Gamblers
Memphis Showboats
Southern Division
Birmingham Stallions
Jacksonville Bulls
New Orleans Breakers
Tampa Bay Bandits
Western Division
Arizona Outlaws
Denver Gold
Houston Gamblers
Memphis Showboats
FOLDED: Los Angeles Express, Oakland Invaders, San Antonio Gunslingers
The Express, under league control, limp to the end of the 1985 season and are folded. San Antonio, hampered by a tiny stadium and a cash-poor owner, are folded. The Oakland Invaders also disband. The league’s remaining teams are in fairly good shape financially and pretty well supported. Trump, frustrated that his suggestion about a fall schedule is dismissed, sells the Generals.
USFL 1987 (Spring)
Eastern Division
New Jersey Generals
Philadelphia Stars
Pittsburgh Maulers
Orlando Renegades
Michigan Panthers
Southern Division
Birmingham Stallions
Jacksonville Bulls
New Orleans Breakers
Tampa Bay Bandits
Western Division
Arizona Outlaws
Denver Gold
Houston Gamblers
Memphis Showboats
Southern Division
Birmingham Stallions
Jacksonville Bulls
New Orleans Breakers
Tampa Bay Bandits
Western Division
Arizona Outlaws
Denver Gold
Houston Gamblers
Memphis Showboats
The USFL still signs enough big name players to compete with the NFL, and in 1988 the league plays its last spring season. However, this time the news is good.
USFL 1988 (Spring)
Eastern Division
New Jersey Generals-z
Philadelphia Stars
Pittsburgh Maulers-m
Orlando Renegades
Michigan Panthers
Southern Division
Birmingham Stallions
Jacksonville Bulls
New Orleans Breakers
Tampa Bay Bandits
Western Division
Arizona Outlaws
Denver Gold-z
Houston Gamblers-z
Memphis Showboats
Southern Division
Birmingham Stallions
Jacksonville Bulls
New Orleans Breakers
Tampa Bay Bandits
Western Division
Arizona Outlaws
Denver Gold-z
Houston Gamblers-z
Memphis Showboats
(Will join NFL. Will join WLAF, m-moves, z-merges)
Following the 1988 season, the USFL could have simply continued on, but more likely the NFL sues for peace. As part of the deal, several of the USFL franchises will join the NFL and begin play in the fall of 1990. However, after six seasons spring football is fairly popular and the NFL knows this. To prevent another spring circuit from popping up and causing the league grief the NFL forms the World League of American Football (WLAF) to also begin play in 1990, but in the spring (one year earlier than the non-USFL timeline). The WLAF takes 5 USFL teams and also expands into Europe with franchises in London, Barcelona, and Frankfurt. In the US though, things are tricky as teams are moved and folded, and one NFL relocation is altered.
In 1988 Bill Bidwell looking for a new home for his St. Louis Cardinals cannot move the team to Phoenix, because the Outlaws are already there and about to join the NFL. As part of the merger agreement, Bidwell moves the team to Baltimore. The USFL Stars who were eyeing a move to Maryland as part of their migration to the NFL, are forced to move instead to Charlotte. They also absorb the Generals. Denver merges with Jacksonville who joins the NFL. Birmingham and Memphis also join the NFL, swelling the league to 34 teams.
In 1989 there is no spring football. In the spring of 1990 the 5 remaining USFL teams (the Pittsburgh Maulers are sold and move to Sacramento to become the Surge) join the WLAF and continue to play in the spring.
Former USFL teams 1990
Charlotte Stars, Birmingham Stallions, Jacksonville Bulls, Arizona Outlaws, and Memphis Showboats join the NFL.
WLAF 1990
London Monarchs, Barcelona Dragons , Frankfurt Galaxy, Orlando Renegades, Michigan Panthers, New Orleans Breakers, Tampa Bay Bandits, and Houston Gamblers along with the Sacramento Surge (the former Pittsburgh Maulers) form the WLAF. The Montreal Machine are also added to round the circuit out to 10 teams.
CFL Expansion into the US.
In the early 1990s many CFL teams were in trouble. With the folding of the Montreal Alouettes in 1987, the league was down to 8 teams and almost all of them were struggling financially. A new wave of owners hired Larry Smith as commissioner with the understanding he would seek expansion south of the border. But with a larger NFL and a stronger WLAF, opportunities would have been limited.
Originally the CFL placed teams in Baltimore, Sacramento, San Antonio, Las Vegas, Shreveport, Birmingham, and Memphis, though not all at the same time.
With the USFL/NFL merger, the CFL still expands into the US, but instead winds up in Portland, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Shreveport, Syracuse, and Miami. The US experiment still ends with all but one of the teams folding. However, the move still saves the CFL. It still takes a few more years for the league to get back on solid financial footing, but the influx of much needed cash provided by the expansion fees buys the CFL time.
The Montreal Machine of the WLAF move to Columbus, Ohio to become the Ohio Glory, paving the way for the CFL’s Portland franchise, the only surviving US team, to move to Montreal and become the new Alouettes.
Los Angeles Rams and Los Angeles Raiders
In 1995 the Rams leave Los Angeles for owner Georgia Frontiere’s hometown of St. Louis, and the Raiders head back to Oakland.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers
These teams never exist as the Bulls and Stars are already in those two cities.
The San Antonio Browns
In 1996, Art Modell, dissatisfied with the lack of progress in getting a new stadium built in Cleveland, moves the Browns to a city that built a new stadium just three years earlier: San Antonio, recently abandoned by the CFL. Cleveland still sues, and is awarded the “new” Browns who being play in 1999. Modell’s team changes its name to the Riders.
The Los Angeles Panthers
Also in 1996, the WLAF’s Michigan Panthers move into the Coliseum in Los Angeles, while the WLAF adds a team in Scotland to take Michigan’s place. The Rhein Fire also joins the WLAF.
The Houston Oilers
In 1997, the Oilers move to Tennessee, but this time there is no layover in Memphis. The team heads straight to Nashville and plays at Vanderbilt’s stadium until a new facility can be built.
The Houston Texans
In 2002 Houston returns to the NFL with the expansion Texans.
The XFL
Never happens.
The NFL and WLAF Today
NFL
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
Jacksonville Bulls
New York Jets
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC SOUTH
Birmingham Stallions
Houston Texans
Memphis Showboats
Tennessee Titans
San Antonio Riders
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers
NFC EAST
Baltimore Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Charlotte Stars
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC WEST
Arizona Outlaws
Los Angeles Panthers
St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Outlaws
Los Angeles Panthers
St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
WLAF
EUROPE
Amsterdam Admirals
Barcelona Dragons
London Monarchs
Scotland Claymores
Rhein Fire
NORTH AMERICA
Tampa Bay Bandits
Ohio Glory
Sacramento Surge
Orlando Renegades
New Orleans Breakers
Another Scenario: The Out-of-Court Settlement Merger 1986/87
With the lawsuit looming in 1986, and with one of its owners (Al Davis) about to testify for the plaintiffs, the NFL discusses the idea of absorbing several of the USFL franchises. There’s only one problem. They don’t want Trump.
In this timeline, with The Donald removed from the equation, the NFL takes the Baltimore Stars, Birmingham Stallions, Memphis Showboats, the Jacksonville Bulls, the Arizona Outlaws and perhaps the Bandits, though they would have to move. New Jersey isn’t included because three teams would have to share one stadium and neither the Jets nor Giants want a direct competitor getting in the way of their monopoly.
This predates the Cardinals departure from St. Louis, and with his back-up markets also taken, the Cards either stay put or, more likely, wind up in Charlotte.
No way San Antonio survives in anyone's scenario. In their final season, they could barely make payroll. In Small Potatoes, Rick Neuheisel said that the only place to cash checks was at some obscure bank in south Texas and the players would have a race to see who can get there to cash their checks. If you were late, you didn't get paid. It was so bad that the team almost quit.
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